What happened?
J.A. Happ pitched seven shutout innings as the Phillies swept the Marlins at home for the second time this season. They are 51-38 and have a seven game lead in the division.
Who did what?
J.A. Happ (W, 7-0) pitched seven shutout innings en route to the victory. He gave up five hits, walked one and struck out four.
Jimmy Rollins went 3 for 5 with a double (23), a triple (2) and an RBI.
Shane Victorino went 1 for 3 with a run.
Chase Utley went 1 for 4 with an RBI.
Raul Ibanez went 1 for 3 with a double (19) and two RBIs.
Andrew Miller (L, 3-5) gave up four runs on six hits and four walks in 2.2 innings.
What does this mean?
When the Phillies began play against the Florida Marlins to kick off the second half, it was clear that the consequences of the series would have a resounding, ripple-like impact on the remainder of the season. Lose three or get swept, and the Marlins are knocking on the door. Split, and you’re back where you started. Win three or sweep, and you put a strangle hold on the division.
Fortunately for the Phillies, the latter scenario became a reality. They won all three games against the Fish, amassing a six and a half game lead on the rest of the National League east in the process. They did it with timely hitting and solid starting pitching, culminating with J.A. Happ’s gem in the series finale to extend their winning streak to eight games.
After a suspect mistake on the base paths from Jimmy Rollins in the top of the first inning, Happ attacked the Marlins and danced out of a jam in the first, before settling in and cruising for most of his seven shutout innings. His biggest test came in the bottom of the sixth, when a botched double-play ball from Feliz loaded the bases with no outs. He induced an infield popup to Ronny Paulino, before striking out Brent Carroll and Wes Helms to end the inning and the threat.
Happ went on to retire the Marlins in order in the seventh inning, ending his day en route to his seventh win for the season. It marks the fifth start in a row that Happ has pitched at least seven innings, dating back to his complete game shutout against the Toronto Blue Jays on June 27. In those five starts, he has allowed six runs, walked only five hitters, while striking out at least four in each game.
In a season where the Phillies are searching for arms, J.A. Happ answered the call. He’s been their best pitcher this season, showing poise on the mound that is well beyond his years. Whether or not he pitches this way for the season, or whether he is even with the team after July 31 is irrelevant. He’s stepped up and shouldered the load for The Fightins, and has been a huge factor in their recent success.
What’s next for our heroes?
The Chicago Cubs visit Philadelphia for a three-game set, with Rodrigo Lopez (1-0, 3.18) taking on Ted Lilly (9-6, 3.18).
Bonus baseball!
Just over a year ago, the Phillies acquired Joe Blanton from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for three players, including Adrian Cardenas and Josh Outman. The trade seemed like a coup for Billy Beane, as Cardenas and Outman were two of the best prospects in the Phillies’ system, while Blanton seemed to be nothing more than a back-end of the rotation pitcher.
The fans seemed to agree, with a handful of comments at MLBTradeRumors.com painting Blanton as nothing more than a slight upgrade over Adam Eaton, and certainly not good enough to warrant giving up two of the better prospects in the Phillies’ farm system.
We all know how that went: Joe Blanton wouldn’t lose a game in a Phillies uniform, and was instrumental getting them to, and winning, the World Series.
Which brings me to my point: With the trade deadline just over a week away, there is going to be a lot of speculation about whether or not the Phillies will acquire Roy Halladay. They are the front runners in most circles, with the financial flexibility and the farm system to get a trade done. While players like Kyle Drabek and Dominic Brown are marked as “untouchable,” make no mistake about it: No one who is not on the MLB roster isn’t expendable. If it comes down to a Drabek or a Brown or Jason Knapp being the final piece in making a trade, you have to believe that they are going to pull the trigger. Not only that, but it’s the right move.
As nice as it is to have a prospect like Kyle Drabek, it’s even nicer to have a rotation lead by the two-headed monster of Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels. There is much rumbling on the message boards about how Drabek should not be traded. And to those fans, I say this: You’re fooling yourselves if you think this isn’t the right move. Roy Halladay is a once-in-a-generation pitcher. He eats innings like Joey Chestnut eats hot dogs, and he’s managed to be one of the best pitchers in the game in the ultra-competitive environment of the A.L. east, while playing for a team that hasn’t seen October baseball since 1993. The Phillies would be unrivaled in the division, and possibly in the National League. With Halladay, the chances to repeat as World Series Champions get better. A lot better.
So understand this: While Kyle Drabek could end up being a superstar, he is an unknown entity. Just like Gavin Floyd. Or Mike Costanzo. Or Michael Bourn. Or any other prospect that was supposed to be the future in Philadelphia, Kyle Drabek is nothing until he’s proven he can be something.
And Roy Halladay? He is a whole lotta something.
28 Comments on “July 19 Game Recap: Phillies 5, Marlins 0”
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General
July 19th, 2009 at 10:32 pm
Trade the farm, keep Happ, get Halladay, Hamels completes the H bomb. Fuck it.
July 19th, 2009 at 10:58 pm
if we can keep happ and add halladay i’d be a happy phan
July 19th, 2009 at 10:59 pm
If there is anyway that we can keep Happ, I’m all for it. If we have to trade Happ for Halladay, I still think we have to do it. Either way, it has to be done.
July 19th, 2009 at 11:00 pm
Point taken that anyone is expendable. The problem comes when you have to give up multiple “almost-untouchables” and several other projected big league starters to bring in one arm. If it was just Drabek for Halladay, then sure. But any time you trade 3 or more talented bodies for one, the risk (injury, bust) becomes too much IMO.
This team in its current form will make the playoffs. So we’d be getting Halladay for that 1-2 punch that would go 4 times in a 7 game series. Very tempting. But if Hamels gets knocked around in game 1 (and unfortunately that doesn’t look as unlikely as it should), the entire logic of the trade is riding on the Halladay start in game 2. That’s a big 3 hours.
Feel free to tear into me, but I just don’t want Amaro to overpay.
July 19th, 2009 at 11:14 pm
I guess it’s time to sell the farm. With or without these prospects, the Phils won’t be good in a couple years when all the current pieces age. I say win now and f*ck the future.
July 19th, 2009 at 11:19 pm
This is something that all of Phillies fan-dom will debate until long after a decision is or isn’t made. It seems like half of the party wants to get Halladay at basically any cost, while the other half wants to be picky about it and name their untouchables.
It’s a question of whether you want to greatly improve your chances of winning the World series this year while taking a risk for future years with the depleted youth. Ruben Amaro has to walk the tightrope of being able to put the team in a position to win now AND win in 3-4 years.
It’s a tough call, and he’s going to have his naysayers with whatever happens.
July 19th, 2009 at 11:26 pm
@Jason: I’m with you in that I’m not sure trading away all of our top prospects for the guy is the best decision. But my real issue with Halladay is, can we lock him up for the Phillies for more than just the rest of 2009. If we cant, then do we really want to trade away the high-potential future, for better “Chances” of repeating? Afterall, Hallday doesn’t guarentee us another Commisioner’s Trophy.
@dlhunter, I don’t think that’s a fair asessment of the Phillies Pharm system.
In a few years time, I see the Phillies without: Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez, Pedro Feliz, Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer, Paul Bako, Pedro Feliz, Scott Eyre, and maybe a couple of other pieces.
All of those guys could be potentially be replaced with the guys we have in the Pharm. IE: Taylor, Brown, Drabek, Savery, Knapp, Donald, Marson. That’s just naming some of the top-notch guys too. Let’s not forget Carrasco down there, who might make a resurgence somehow, or Mayberry who’s with us in the bigs right now. With some work, Mayberry could be a really good outfielder.
July 19th, 2009 at 11:27 pm
this is the only entry this hotel computer filter will let me view since the other ones have bad language–fuuuckin dumb. phils seem to be rollin right along. at least they’ll be on espn tomorrow night, i miss my phils
July 19th, 2009 at 11:29 pm
@4DaysRest: That’s a good summerization of the situation. Another one would be “You’re damned if you do, and you’re damned if you don’t” Either way however, you have to feel good as a Phillies fan that we’re lucky to be having conversations like this. It’s normally the stuff RedSox Nation, and Yankees fans get to talk about fevorishly.
July 19th, 2009 at 11:45 pm
Most teams don’t give up their #1 prospects in trades nowadays. The Braves refused to give up theirs and still got Texeria. The Mets refused to give up theirs and still got Santana. The Dbacks refused to give up theirs and still got Schilling. The Jays are backed into a corner. The only team willing to meet their ransom is the Yankees, and they don’t want to trade him there. The Phils should be able to get Halladay for a package of Carrasco, Taylor, Donald and a few A-ball types. It’s not like Halladay is 25 and has his whole career ahead of him. He is 32 and signed for a year and a half and can demand a trade at the end of the season. The Jays can’t expect the world in return. They are dumping a lot of salary in the deal, and that is their main goal. Rube needs to show some nads and not let the Jays put a gun to his head.
July 19th, 2009 at 11:49 pm
@Fink: If that’s how things work out, then my dream Pitching staff for the year will come true.
Rotation: Halladay, Hamels, Happ, Blanton, Moyer
Bullpen: Condrey, Martinez, Park, Durbin, Eyre, Romero, Madson, Lidge.
That is what I’m hoping for.
July 19th, 2009 at 11:54 pm
@Jason Well said. However, Drabek, Brown, Taylor, Knapp et al have proven nothing at the Major League level, so we don’t know what the Phillies would be giving up. They might be giving up four HOF players, but they also might be giving up two Adam Eatons and two Chris Robersons. The truth is, no one knows what will happen with their careers. That is the same attitude that the New York Yankees had when they were in talks to obtain Johan Santana. They didn’t want to trade away Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy because they were supposed to the future of the pitching staff. However, Phil Hughes is only starting to have success as a late reliever, and Ian Kennedy’s ERA in 2008 would make for a very good credit score. That’s what makes these situations difficult to navigate.
The risk/reward is great enough to warrant trading for Halladay. He turns the rotation into one of the best in the league without even throwing a pitch. He takes stress off the bullpen. He can cut through an A.L. lineup; what can he to do an N.L. lineup?
We know what Halladay has, can, and will do. We don’t know what Drabek or Knapp will do. To put it another way: Would you rather have a million dollars, or would you rather have three chances to maybe get a million dollars?
July 20th, 2009 at 12:09 am
@Dash: Signing Halladay doesn’t automatically win us the Commishes Trophy, it gives us a better chance at winning it sure. But if Hamels doesn’t turn himself around, and if our lineup doesn’t produce when we need it to, we could lose a World Series even with Halladay in the rotation.
I’m not saying that I don’t want Halladay, or that having Halladay on the team doesn’t make the Phils the favorites to win it all. But I am putting out there the issues that may come up if we sign Halladay. We have to ensure he’s here for more than just the rest of this season.
July 20th, 2009 at 12:20 am
@ Dash
This is what scares me: In 2002 Bartolo Colon was traded by the Indians for Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, and Grady Sizemore. I don’t want the phillies to make a similar mistake.
This team should make the playoffs with or without Halladay and should be tough in the playoffs with or without Halladay. The addition of Halladay doesn’t gaurantee a championship. Just look at the brewers last year. Everyone thought Sabathia would take the brewers to the playoffs, and he did. But look at what happened in the playoffs. For a team that should already be going to the playoffs, the PHillies are really just paying for a couple playoff starts where anything could happen
July 20th, 2009 at 1:00 am
@ Dash, very VERY great points about the Yankees.
@ everyone else: the future is NOW. I want another title THIS YEAR. Let’s GIT R DUN!!!
July 20th, 2009 at 1:31 am
@Jordan: I’d totally forgotten that the Indians had made that trade. Definitely seems like the Indians got the better end of the deal there.
July 20th, 2009 at 3:55 am
@ Dash. Great analysis. I agree 110%
@ Jordan. When talking about Milwaukee, don’t forget that Sheets got hurt down the stretch. That would be like trading for Halladay and Hamels breaking his leg the following week–the Phils would basically be back to square 1, but imagine if the Brewers hadn’t traded for Sabathia and Sheets went down!
@ Swift. In all likelihood, we’re talking about having Halladay until at least the end of the 2010 season. Yes, I realize he can demand a trade, but I find it highly unlikely that he’d take that course after waving his no-trade clause to come to Philly. Sure, it’s possible, and I appreciate the need to plan for that contingency, but I don’t think the Phils would be considering this move unless they could put out the cash to sign him to an extension.
Overall, I don’t think the Phils should give up Happ AND Drabek, Taylor AND Brown. To me, it’s a matter of avoiding these kind of deadly combinations. I think that, if the deal gets done, it will probably be something like Drabek, Taylor, Donald, and Carrasco or Savery or Carpenter. I could see the Phillies trying to replace Drabek in this kind of deal with a combo of Happ and Knapp, but I don’t know that the Jays would bite on that. It seems that they are intent upon getting a team’s top prospect in exchange for Halladay, and to be fair, he’s worth it.
July 20th, 2009 at 4:39 am
“make no mistake about it: No one who is not on the MLB roster isn’t expendable.”
Dash – Way to utilize the seldomly used quadruple negative.
Just kidding around. I love the site and am a frequent visitor. Keep up the good work.
July 20th, 2009 at 5:13 am
@ Swift
“All of those guys could be potentially be replaced with the guys we have in the Pharm. IE: Taylor, Brown, Drabek, Savery, Knapp, Donald, Marson. That’s just naming some of the top-notch guys too. Let’s not forget Carrasco down there, who might make a resurgence somehow, or Mayberry who’s with us in the bigs right now. With some work, Mayberry could be a really good outfielder.”
The key phrase there is “could be potentially”. Could you be more speculative? These prospects are all unproven, or in Mayberry’s case very nearly proven a bust. The man’s 2 weeks older than Jeff Francoeur (25, 26 in December) and strikes out at an ungodly rate. Tools or not, Mayberry’s being given his chance now. And it ain’t working out. At least not as a “really good outfielder”.
And the “pieces” you mention us missing in the next couple years are almost the entire team. Who’s left? Chase at 34? RynHo at 35? Jimmy’s probably done by then. Cole’s basically the only guy left anywhere near his prime. Chooch’s knees will be gone. Shane won’t be fast anymore (there goes half his game).
And all this age-speculation assumes we manage to hold on to these guys in free agency.
These are all very dour and pessimistic thoughts, but the point is there’s guarantee of future success. We have a winning team now. Why not make it better?
July 20th, 2009 at 5:51 am
*but the point is there’s *NO* guarantee of future success.
important word to leave out there
July 20th, 2009 at 8:20 am
Some good points by all. True, Halladay does not guarantee another run in the playoffs, but considering the state of the division and the current 6.5 game lead, he certainly increases the Phils’ chances of playing in October.
But, you’re kidding yourself if you think this team is built to win 11 games in the playoffs. If not for this recent run dating back to the sweep of the Mets, the Phils would likely be only a few games ahead of the second place team in the division. It’s amazing how a winning streak against sup-par opponents can hide the flaws of a team. Right now, the flaw is starting pitching. Hamels has yet to establish himself as the ace and Moyer has had his ups and downs. Blanton and Happ have been the best of the bunch, but they are still an unknown quantity going down the stretch. Pedro Martinez is nice, but how much is he going to contribute? The Phils could find themselves in the playoffs this season, but really, how deep could they go against the Dodgers or Giants?
Ultimately, it all comes down to pitching. And right now, Halladay gives the Phillies their best chance to repeat. They cannot hope to catch fire in a bottle with Pedro or Rodrigo Lopez. That’s fool’s gold.
July 20th, 2009 at 8:50 am
Fuckin’ get him and shrewdly replenish the farm in the offseason after we win the series.
July 20th, 2009 at 9:01 am
Right on, Mister Tug. Right on.
July 20th, 2009 at 9:11 am
i don’t wanna just make the playoffs i wanna be at the parade again this year
July 20th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
@dlhunter: To respond bluntly to your statements on the prospects being speculative, all I have to say is Howard was prospect. Utley was a prospect. Hamels was a prospect. Rollins was a prospect. These are “THE” key pieces to our team. That shows right there, what just because they aren’t proven, doesn’t mean they’re worthless. Very much the opposite.
@Dash: I’d be more worried about the Dodgers, than I would the Giants. Given the fact that the Giants can’t freaking hit the ball very well, outside of Pablo Sandoval and Aaron Rowand.
Of course, another pro to signing Halladay, would be to keep him out of LA. There have been some rumblings that the Dodgers a looking to sign the guy. Which would make them a scary team.
July 20th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
For fucks sake, I just realized the four guys on TheFightins.com banner, were prospects of the Phillies Pharm system at one point or another.
July 20th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
“You play to win the game.” Herman Edwards. Prospects are intended to help the big league team. For every trade like a Ryan Sandberg, there’s a Von Hayes as well. Carasco hasn’t done a damn thing, Happ has only one win against a winning team-the game he should have lost against the Red Sox (If Josh Beckett hadn’t imploded like that). Trade him, Carasco, and throw in maybe 2 other pretty good prospects. Happ’s value is improving with each start. His best asset is that he hides the ball in his delivery. Once people start picking it up in his delivery, does he have what it takes to improve and make adjustments? Could possibly do so. He showed a lot of moxy with the whole bullpen situation at the beginning of the season, but I’m still not convinced he can do much else. Next year, the Mets probably will be better, and so might the Braves. Win now. Everyone keeps talking about how good these prospects might be, what about if anything happens to our major league players? Win when the window is open. You never know when it will close. Imagine if the Phils actually pulled off that trade for Randy Johnson in ‘93. Think we could have won, then? I think so. Just imagine what could have happened if we got the Big Unit and the Big Mouth/Big Gut/Big Schmuck together years before they did so in Arizona. If the Sixers didn’t trade for Mutombo in 2001, think they would have went? Last year is last year. That magic might not be there this year. Matt Stairs might not hit that homer. The team might not have a death to bond around. Meyers will not be having a 10 pitch at bat this year. Every day, you go out there to win, that day. It’s the player’s job to play for a win, it’s the anager’s job to get the players to play for a win, and it’s the front office’s job to get the best possible players for the manager to put out on the field to get them to win. Every level “Play[s] to win the game.”
July 20th, 2009 at 4:32 pm
I’ve been doing some thinking, and some reading. I think if you can get Halladay for Happ and a couple of other prospects, then you pull the trigger. Maybe Happ isn’t as good as I think he is, maybe he is. That’s a maybe, and Halladay isn’t a maybe. I say make the trade, but only if you can ensure Halladay stays in Philly next year as well.
I’m sold on Halladay for whatever it takes.